Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management
May. 13, 2020

Our CIO Insights outlook update examines the longer-term economic implications of the coronavirus and revisits the six investment themes we identified at the beginning of 2020. 

 

Inside the report “Through difficult waters", we explore:

  • The economic outlook for 2020 and 2021 as the world turns the COVID-19 tide
  • Asset class outlooks and 12-month point forecasts
  • Why our existing six 2020 investment themes are still highly relevant
  • Four key sets of tensions in the new post-pandemic global landscape
  • SAA and our revised long-term asset class return forecasts

 

In summary, we argue that the initial recovery from the pandemic will be only partial, with global output not returning to pre-crisis levels before 2022. Nonetheless, a number of factors will help drive equity markets higher and we see investment opportunities elsewhere too.

 

In the longer-term, we see problems around the various dimensions of political control, around a possible addiction to policy intervention, around the impact of higher debt levels and government intervention on growth, and on the markets’ desire for handholding rather than “animal spirits”.

 

To download a printer-friendly PDF of the full report, please click here.

 

To view a mobile-optimised version of the full report, please click here.

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Through difficult waters

Our CIO Insights outlook update looks at the longer-term economic implications of the coronavirus and revisits the six investment themes we identified for 2020.

  • May. 13, 2020

Theme 1 – Policy pressures need prudent response

Economic slowdown worries have encouraged central banks to loosen monetary policy again, but many factors that are hurting growth are non-monetary in nature. Even though the effectiveness of monetary policy is nearing its limits, and calls for fiscal stimulus will be more vocal, we don’t anticipate a massive fiscal boost. Political developments will also continue to have an impact on markets.

  • Dec. 19, 2019

Theme 2 – Living with a low yields world

With a continuing policy reliance on monetary “magic”, current financial repression in the form of negative (real) bond yields will continue for some time. Many central banks now own high shares of their countries’ overall debt (in the case of the Bank of Japan, 45%) and winding these holdings down will take time – if it happens at all.

  • Dec. 19, 2019

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