Key takeaways:

  • As only a minority of market participants expected, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered the key interest rate from 1.75 to 1.50 percent at its meeting today.
  • The SNB is thus initiating the interest rate turnaround earlier than the other G10 central banks. The desire to counteract an appreciation of the franc may have played a role here. In addition, the SNB reacted to the unexpectedly sharp decrease in inflation pressure.
  • As the monetary authorities further reduced their inflation forecasts, further interest rate cuts are likely to follow by the end of the year.

 

1. What happened?

In order to keep inflation close to the target level of between zero and two percent, the SNB has relied on an appreciation of the franc over the past two years. While the key interest rate had previously been in negative territory for a long time at minus 0.75 percent, the SNB ended the era of negative interest rates with its interest rate hike in September 2022.

 

Last June, the monetary authorities increased the key interest rate to 1.75 percent. At the same time, the central bank was constantly active in the currency markets and supported the home currency through foreign currency sales against the Swiss franc in order to counteract imported inflation.

 

With a steady decline in inflation rates and an expected economic slowdown or early indicators pointing to this - particularly due to the stagnation of the economy in the Eurozone in the final quarter of 2023 - the SNB changed the wording at its December meeting. Among other things, she announced that currency market interventions would not only be carried out unilaterally in favor of the franc. And also indicated that the interest rate hike cycle may now be over.

 

In January, the overall inflation rate fell from 1.7 to 1.3 percent, contrary to analyst expectations of stagnation. The SNB had even projected an increase in the rate. The core rate adjusted for energy and food prices also unexpectedly fell from 1.5 to 1.2 percent.

 

After inflation rates fell slightly further in February, expectations of a timely change in interest rates by the SNB increased on the financial markets. Most recently, however, the majority expected a first reduction in June rather than March. That's why some market players were caught on the wrong foot when the SNB decided to cut the key interest rate from 1.75 to 1.50 percent today.

 

2. How did markets react?

On the swap markets, the probability of an interest rate hike today was recently priced out from around 75 to around 30 percent. As a result, a slight appreciation of the Swiss franc was expected following the meeting, particularly on the currency markets.

 

In an immediate reaction, the franc lost 1.0 percent against the euro and fell to an eight-month low, and the franc lost 1.2 percent against the USD. The leading Swiss stock index SMI initially rose 1.4%, but later gave up some of its gains. Yields on two-year Swiss government bonds fell by more than ten basis points.

 

3. What does it mean for investors?

SNB President Thomas Jordan said after the decision was announced. “Inflation has now been below 2 percent again for several months and is therefore in the range that we equate with price stability. According to our new forecast, inflation is likely to remain in this range over the next few years.”

 

The SNB writes in its statement: “In the medium term, smaller second-round effects lead to a downward revision of inflation expectations. The conditional inflation forecast is within the price stability range over the entire forecast period.” On average for the year, the forecast inflation is 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026. The forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB key interest rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast period. The decision takes into account “the real appreciation of the franc that took place last year”, it said. The interest rate cut supports economic development. The SNB reiterated its willingness to be active in the foreign exchange market if necessary.

 

The SNB's move removes further appreciation pressure from the franc and reduces the need to intervene in the foreign exchange market and thus further inflate its balance sheet. It should be noted that the SNB only meets quarterly, which is half as often as the Fed and ECB. The next SNB interest rate decision will take place in June.

 

Admittedly, no aggressive wave of interest rate cuts from the SNB is expected over the course of the year - especially since the key interest rates are significantly lower than in the Eurozone and the USA. However, by taking this step, the SNB sent a signal that it would protect the economy from the consequences of an excessively strong franc. The appreciation potential of the franc is therefore likely to remain limited. However, the Swiss franc, which tends to be slightly weaker, could support the Swiss stock market. So far in 2024, this has gained less than most other European leading indices.

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  • Glossary

    Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders over a given period of time.

     

    CHF is the currency code for the Swiss franc.

     

    EUR is the currency code for the Euro.

     

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the Eurozone.

     

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the USA.

     

    The G10 includes Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

     

    Core Inflation is an economic concept for measuring inflation that does not take into account changes in the price of certain goods. The core inflation rate excludes food and energy prices from the calculation, as these are more subject to fluctuations whose causes cannot be found within the economy under consideration.

     

    The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the central bank of Switzerland.

     

    As a blue chip index, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) is the most important stock index in Switzerland.

     

    In finance, a swap is the Anglicism for derivative financial instruments whose commonality is the exchange of future cash flows.

     

    USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar.

     

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of a basket of products and services based on typical household consumption.

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